10 Sept · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1615
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polak
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1625
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H10-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.