10 Sept · 18:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1490
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Moravec
MD
🇨🇿Martin Dolezal
ELO 1485
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🌟Dolezal covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.