10 Sept · 19:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1673
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Guzy
PO
🇨🇿Piotr Odelski
ELO 1629
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.