10 Sept · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1512
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zapala
BB
🇨🇿Bilski Bartosz
ELO 1482
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Zapala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H17-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.