10 Sept · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1677
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Guzy
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1642
FormWWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H44-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.