11 Sept · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1424
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1450
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (70)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H6-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.