11 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1574
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krenek
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1555
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (67)
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H11-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.