11 Sept · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1555
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1601
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (67)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H18-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.