11 Sept · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1580
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Ovcharenko
MO
🇨🇿Maksim Ovcharenko
ELO 1670
FormLLWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Ovcharenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 67% · 1.50· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)