11 Sept · 16:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1543
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Volny
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1490
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drozd🌟Volny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (55)
Fair odds · Volny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.