11 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1501
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sebl
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1544
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🌟Rek goes over total as underdog 66% (35)
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H8-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.