11 Sept · 17:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Mateusz Szymanski
ELO 1603
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Guzy
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1689
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H24-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-19)