11 Sept · 23:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Mateusz Szymanski
ELO 1616
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Duch
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1630
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Duch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H21-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.