12 Sept · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1536
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dzida
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1510
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.