12 Sept · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1700
FormLWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Moravec
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Skalicky
ELO 1594
FormLLWLW
59%
41%
🌟Skalicky covers set handicap as underdog 73% (22)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+106
H2H12-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-3)