12 Sept · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1596
FormLLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Fitl
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1495
FormLLLWW
58%
42%
🌟Jr goes over total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)