12 Sept · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1590
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pribyl
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pribyl
ELO 1598
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Pribyl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.