12 Sept · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1495
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vavricka
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1516
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Jr goes over total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.