12 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1536
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dzida
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1522
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.