12 Sept · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
CK
🇨🇿Christian Kratochvil
ELO 1463
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kratochvil
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1440
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vodal🌟Vodal covers set handicap as underdog 67% (90)
Fair odds · Kratochvil
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H16-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.