12 Sept · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿Dmytro Skvarskyi
ELO 1707
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skvarskyi
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1631
FormLWWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Skvarskyi
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H16-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-3)