12 Sept · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1504
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jnr
JJ
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Jemelka covers set handicap as underdog 69% (42)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.