12 Sept · 22:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1569
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sebl
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1533
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🌟Dohnal covers set handicap as underdog 65% (37)
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 29% · 3.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H14-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.