12 Sept · 20:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1536
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pokorny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1429
FormLLWWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Pokorny
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)