12 Sept · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Martin Boltik
ELO 1574
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Boltik
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1533
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dohnal🌟Dohnal covers set handicap as underdog 65% (37)
Fair odds · Boltik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H12-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.