12 Sept · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1447
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobota
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1432
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chvojka🌟Sobota goes over total as favourite 67% (33)
Fair odds · Sobota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.