12 Sept · 22:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1500
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Hons
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1429
FormLLWWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H8-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-6)