12 Sept · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Martin Boltik
ELO 1574
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Boltik
DZ
🇨🇿Daniel Zelezny
ELO 1542
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Boltik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.