12 Sept · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1625
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ovcharenko
MO
🇨🇿Maksim Ovcharenko
ELO 1669
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Ovcharenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H11-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.