12 Sept · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Mateusz Szymanski
ELO 1590
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Duch
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1652
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Duch
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H22-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-17)