13 Sept · 07:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1635
FormLWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Gembala
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1524
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krenek🌟Krenek goes over total as underdog 68% (85)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H18-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-10)