13 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1400
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stefek
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1445
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Stefek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (37)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.