13 Sept · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1635
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Gembala
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Skalicky
ELO 1577
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Skalicky🌟Skalicky covers set handicap as underdog 64% (25)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)