13 Sept · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1514
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vavricka
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1480
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🌟Jr goes over total as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.