13 Sept · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1418
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Vavricka
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1514
FormWWLLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+96
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+96)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)