13 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vorisek
ELO 1668
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vorisek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1653
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Vorisek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H189-161
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.