13 Sept · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1635
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1588
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chaloupka🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (93)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.