13 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1445
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stefek
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1441
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Stefek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (37)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.