13 Sept · 12:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1486
FormWWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jr
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1412
FormLLLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)