13 Sept · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1542
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1499
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (102)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H14-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.