13 Sept · 21:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1497
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1506
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matus
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H11-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.