13 Sept · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1499
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sedlacek
RS
🇨🇿Radek Sedlacek
ELO 1513
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec
Fair odds · Sedlacek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.