13 Sept · 19:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1465
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1497
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dolezal🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (69)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.