13 Sept · 17:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1524
FormLLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Dohnal
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vodal
ELO 1429
FormLLLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vodal🌟Dohnal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (148)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+95
H2H64-53
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+95)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (64-53)