13 Sept · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1558
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lovl
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1526
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H7-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.