13 Sept · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1651
FormWLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lysakowski
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1576
FormLWLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H66-41
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (66-41)