14 Sept · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1503
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 67% (102)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H59-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.