14 Sept · 11:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1398
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1503
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 75% (71)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H20-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)