14 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1503
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kral
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1470
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 75% (71)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~82 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H39-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.