14 Sept · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1571
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Knazik
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1526
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holik🌟Holik goes over total as underdog 68% (38)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H12-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.